The downside risk of PVC futures increases in the

2022-06-22
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The downward risk of PVC futures increases in the future market

I. the market review

pvc period made noise, and the goods were blocked and fell after rising sharply this week. The main contract v1101 was opened at 7995, with an intraday high of 8190 and a low of 7930. At the end of the day, it closed at 7950, up 5 points, or 0.06%. The trading volume increased by 270000 to 315000, and the position decreased by 3434 to 53714

II. Market analysis

1. International crude oil

international crude oil was shaken and consolidated above $80 this week. As of Friday, the load base that can be reached by international crude oil for each load was unchanged, and crude oil closed at $81.25/barrel, down $1.41 from the previous week. International crude oil fell slightly at the beginning of the week due to investors' risk aversion caused by the rebound of the US dollar and investors' profit locking before the OPEC oil ministers' meeting and the announcement of crude oil inventory data on Wednesday. Subsequently, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting confirmed the market's expectations for the launch of stimulus measures in November. The US dollar exchange rate fell, and the IEA and EIA raised their oil demand forecasts for this year. The US crude oil inventory fell unexpectedly. The data showed that China's crude oil imports hit a record high, and the oil price rebounded sharply on Wednesday. However, US oil demand fell to the lowest level in 10 months, the number of us initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased, and oil prices fell again. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said as expected that low inflation and high unemployment made it reasonable to further relax monetary policy, investors took profits, the dollar exchange rate stopped falling and rebounded after hitting a new low, and oil prices fell sharply. The weakness of fundamentals has restrained the current upward range of oil prices, but there is still the possibility of further downward exploration of the US dollar exchange rate, and the international crude oil may remain at a high level

the chart shows the trend of US crude oil and US dollar index. (picture source: CSC futures)

US crude oil inventory (unit: 10000 barrels)

the chart shows the trend of US crude oil inventory. (picture source: CSC futures)

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