Midfield reflection on the hottest new energy vehi

2022-08-15
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Midfield reflection on the new energy vehicle industry

"by 2025, the electrification technology will be fully mature, and it is also the inflection point of the price performance ratio of new energy and renewable energy." Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and executive vice president of the electric 100 people's Association, predicted when new energy vehicles would become mature in the market at the forum of the electric 100 people's Association

the forum of the China electric vehicle hundred people's Congress (2019) held from January 12 to 13 is undoubtedly the summit of the highest specification in the field of new energy vehicles in China. Representatives of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of science and technology, the energy administration, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and other ministries and commissions, as well as representatives of industry associations and technical experts from all walks of life took the stage to make a speech to summarize and prospect the new energy vehicle industry

based on the official promotion and implementation of the financial subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2013, China's new energy vehicle industry has experienced rapid development for nearly six years. According to the data disclosed by Miao Wei, Minister of industry and information technology, China's entire new energy vehicle industry chain has invested more than 2trillion yuan. From, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.07 million and 2.92 million respectively, making China the world's largest new energy vehicle market

if rapid development, subsidies and industrial agglomeration have been the key words of China's new energy vehicle industry in the past six years, in this forum of the 100 people's Congress, the decline of subsidies, safety, and the development of fuel cells, hybrid and other technical routes have been highly emphasized by representatives of many ministries and commissions and industry experts

after obtaining the industrial volume at a high speed and realizing market cultivation, the top-level design has obviously revealed clear signals of rhythm adjustment and defect detection and repair, which is undoubtedly a new survival challenge for new energy vehicle enterprises, especially the new electric vehicle enterprises that poured in around 2014

"safety is the most critical indicator of new energy vehicles"

endurance is the lifeblood of electric vehicles. The reason why the electric vehicle market depends on the continuous support of policies in finance and right of way is precisely because the endurance short board is difficult to meet the market demand. The main means to improve the endurance is to improve the energy density of the power battery

energy density is an index to evaluate the storage capacity of a battery under unit weight. The higher the energy density, the more power it can carry under the same weight and volume

the reason why Tesla Model 3 can achieve 590 km endurance as a type a car is that it is equipped with a 21700 battery with an energy density of 300wh/kg. The ES6 released by Weilai in December last year also achieved 510 kilometers of endurance under NEDC conditions because it was equipped with ncm811 battery with a single energy density of more than 260wh/kg

Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, disclosed a set of data: it has been 10 years since the lithium-ion power battery was applied to electric vehicles in 2008, the energy density of the actually loaded products has increased by 2.5 times from 100wh/kg to about 250wh/kg, and the energy cost has decreased to 1 yuan/wh. Ouyang Minggao described this as "a revolutionary breakthrough in the battery field in the past century"

"in 2012, the single energy density of the battery was 150wh/kg. It took us three years to reach 180wh/kg in 2015. From 180wh/kg to 260wh/kg in 2018, we also took only three years." Wang Fang, the chief expert of China Automotive Research Institute, said with deep intention, "this growth rate may imply some problems that we need to pay attention to in addition to energy density."

Wang Fang's concern is not groundless. In the process of participating in the formulation of the national mandatory standard for safety requirements of power batteries for electric vehicles, he analyzed more than 80 fire accidents of electric vehicle passenger cars from 2011 to September 2018:

in addition to 16% of the proportion related to the charging process, 18% of the fire accidents are caused by external forces such as mechanical collision, 35% of the fire accidents are spontaneous combustion events of unknown causes

power battery is an electrochemical carrier, and its chemical reaction is carried out all the time, even if the vehicle is parked. "With the development of high energy density batteries, there are more and more transient thermal runaways caused by many uncertain factors." Wang Fang said

Professor Ai Xinping, a professor of Wuhan University, also pointed out that the main way to improve the energy density of batteries in China is to add a higher proportion of nickel to the positive electrode of batteries, and with the increase of nickel content, the stability of positive electrode materials will decline

"take the ncm811 battery with the highest energy density as an example, the thermal decomposition of the battery begins at 120 degrees." AI Xinping said, "one of the core reasons for the battery fire is the thermal runaway. Generally, the thermal runaway of the negative electrode is under the environment-friendly ink, but for the ternary battery, it is possible that the thermal runaway of the positive electrode occurs first, and it will be more difficult to solve this problem."

for the balance between the improvement of battery energy density and safety Wan Gang, chairman of the China Association for science and technology, made it clear in his speech:

"We still need to take safety, especially the electric thermal safety of power battery system, as the most critical index of new energy vehicles. From the aspects of single module, battery pack, electric thermal management and structural layout of power battery, we should pay special attention to the stability of materials, charging and discharging motor system, thermal runaway protection and electric thermal management system to achieve the best system solution."

Ouyang Minggao also pointed out that "the bottleneck of the development of high-energy density lithium-ion batteries is their safety."

if the performance of the power battery is checked and balanced by safety, the increase of safety requirements will undoubtedly compress the usable performance boundary of the battery. For new energy vehicle enterprises that take power batteries as the main technology path, it is obvious that they need to plan for a new solution to the short range

timely promote hybrid technology and accelerate the industrialization of fuel cells

the international mainstream new energy vehicle route is fuel cell vehicles, while China is developing electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles at the same time. Among them, electric vehicles are undoubtedly the mainstream technology route. Whether it is the investment direction of traditional OEMs or the technology camp chosen by start-ups, they are all pure electric vehicles

however, from the production and sales data in 2018, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles showed a significant increase

in 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.27 million and 1.256 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 59.9% and 61.7% respectively; Among them, 986000 and 984000 pure electric vehicles were produced and sold, with a year-on-year increase of 47.9% and 50.8% respectively; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 283000 and 271000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 122% and 118% respectively

"since the second half of last year, plug-in hybrid has developed quite rapidly. Therefore, we should also promote the development of plug-in hybrid in time and change to the development direction of incremental hybrid." Wan Gang, vice chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, said

after the subsidy ebbs, pure electric vehicles will face cost and endurance problems, and plug-in hybrid line is obviously a suitable transition scheme

"plug in hybrid electric vehicles can better balance mileage anxiety and the rising cost of pure electric vehicles, improve the efficiency of traditional internal combustion engines and vehicle energy efficiency, and also reduce the use of batteries, vehicle weight and vehicle costs." Miao Wei, Minister of industry and information technology, said bluntly

among the technical options of plug-in hybrid, the program adding route has been highly praised by many representatives of ministries and commissions and experts. According to the definition of incremental program in China, it is actually a pure electric plug-in hybrid in series, that is, the engine on the vehicle will not participate in the power drive throughout the whole process, but is used to generate electricity, supply motors and power batteries to drive the vehicle. In the parallel scheme, after the battery power is lower than the set value, the engine will also participate in the vehicle drive to keep the instrument clean and tidy

"now plug-in hybrid power has basically achieved a comprehensive energy consumption of less than 2l/100km, and is developing in the direction of increasing program, which can drive the conversion of production capacity, reduce emissions to a lower level, and effectively support the transformation and upgrading of the industry." Wan Gang said

Nissan's note E-power model and the ideal smart one launched by chehejia founded by Li Xiang all use series hybrid technology. According to the data released by chehejia, the NEDC working condition endurance of the ideal smart one can reach 1000 kilometers

in addition to the re emphasis on the weight of the hybrid technology route, the industrialization of fuel cell technology has also been formally put on the agenda

data show that the annual output of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in 2018 exceeded 1500, and the number of hydrogen refueling stations put into operation nationwide reached 12. Yi Baolian, an academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, revealed that about 100 hydrogen refueling stations are expected to be put into operation next year

according to Ouyang Minggao's prediction, according to the development process of hydrogen fuel cell technology in China and the world, the industrialization process of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is about ten years later than that of pure electric vehicles

"In 2020, the fuel cell hybrid will be mature, and the commercial vehicle market is expected to be invested in 5000 to 10000 vehicles. In 2025, the fuel cell technology will be mature, and the cumulative promotion will reach 500 to 100000 vehicles. The landmark model is the large SUV of fuel cell. In 2030, the new generation of hydrogen energy technology will be breakthrough, including hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and hydrogen transportation. The promotion of fuel cell technology in the transportation and energy fields will reach 1million vehicles, which is a landmark The model is a fuel cell long-distance freight truck, which will reach a long-distance freight capacity of 1000 kilometers and a reliability and durability of 1 million kilometers. "

entering the post subsidy era

the financial subsidy for new energy vehicles officially promoted since 2013 will decline comprehensively after 2020. The "parallel management method of average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points of passenger vehicle enterprises" (commonly known as "double points" management method) jointly launched and implemented by the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission and other five ministries and commissions in 2018 is the most powerful support and regulation policy in the post subsidy era of new energy vehicles

in 2018, the five ministries and commissions have promoted the calculation and trading of points in 2016 and 2017, with a total of 118 passenger car enterprises participating and 107 points transactions completed, with a transaction amount of more than 700 million yuan

"relevant departments are paying close attention to the study and formulation of subsidy policies in 2019. The general principle is to ensure that after all subsidies are withdrawn in 2021, there will be no major fluctuations in the industry, and the pressure caused by the decline will be released in stages to prevent a too large decline slope, which will lead to a big decline after a big rise." Miao Wei, Minister of industry and information technology, said in his speech

policy support is to escort the direction of the industry, but without the protection of financial subsidies on the price, new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, will face the test of market demand. How to deal with user needs with short mileage and low charging efficiency

"at present, the driving range has been increased from 150 kilometers to 300 kilometers in general, and the upgrading of plastic granulator technology has been accelerated. However, the complaints of users have not been reduced, because the actual driving range is lower than the expected value. I am also a user of electric vehicles, and I deeply feel that the actual driving range is very sensitive to temperature and driving style." Ouyang Minggao talked about his personal experience

in order to solve the problem of endurance anxiety, new car manufacturers do not hesitate to invest heavily in the construction of power on service system. For example, Weilai has deployed power replacement networks in first tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, as well as G4 Beijing Hong Kong Macao Expressway and G2 Beijing Shanghai expressway. Xiaopeng automobile followed Tesla's example and built a high-power charging station

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