Global polyurethane supply and demand or stimulate

2022-06-27
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Global polyurethane supply and demand or stimulated release after the devastating earthquake in Japan, many chemical enterprises in the disaster area were forced to stop production. As Japan's chemical production capacity plays an important role in the Asia Pacific and even the world, the market supply of short-term internal differentiation products may be greatly affected

"due to the shutdown of several refineries in Japan, it is expected that the ethylene supply in the Asia Pacific region will be impacted in the short term, and the downstream synthetic resin supply will also be affected." A senior engineer from the petrochemical division of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute said in an interview with this newspaper yesterday

earlier, Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings announced on March 11 that it had closed its plant in Kajima City, Ibaraki County due to power interruption caused by the earthquake. The plant is the largest ethylene plant in Japan, accounting for 11% of Japan's total output. It is reported that there are five ethylene plants in Chiba County, and at least two have been forced to close

among them, the Chiba refinery of Cosmo oil company, with a daily crude oil processing capacity of 220000 barrels, is the largest refinery of the company. Its main products include ethylene, propylene, butene, butadiene, etc., which were also shut down after the earthquake. In addition, refineries in Kanagawa and Ibaraki were also shut down due to the earthquake, while Marsan petroleum and Mitsui chemical were shut down immediately after the explosion

in addition to ethylene production capacity, Japan's propylene oxide (PO) production capacity is as high as 570000 tons, including 490000 tons of units of Asahi, NOC and Sumitomo chemical, which are close to the disaster area and seriously damaged by the earthquake, accounting for 86% of Japan's national production capacity

"we believe that the earthquake may have a devastating impact on these devices, and the specific extent of damage still needs to be further understood. Meanwhile, the shutdown of the refinery has led to a shortage of upstream propylene raw material supply. The equipment of cannon is to first mix high-pressure raw material propane, which has a strong certainty of limited production, leading to a shortage of propylene oxide production in Japan." Guosen Securities analyst Zhangdongliang said

data show that Japan is an important importer of propylene oxide in China. In the past two years, the downstream demand for propylene oxide in China has been booming. This time, Japan's production restriction will reduce domestic imports, further exacerbate the domestic supply tension, improve the profitability of propylene oxide manufacturers, and the cost pressure of the downstream polyether industry may further intensify. Zhangdongliang believes that Binhua shares will benefit significantly, while hongbaoli faces cost pressure. Ensure the control accuracy of environmental parameters

on the other hand, Japan has a total PX production capacity of about 3.8 million, ranking the third in the world. The PX production capacity in Chiba area near the epicenter reached 710000. Japan is also China's largest PX importer and the fourth largest PTA importer, and is also an important determinant of PX prices in the Asia Pacific region. After the earthquake, China's PX imports will be affected, which will also bring benefits to Rongsheng petrochemical and other polyester listed companies

according to incomplete statistics, the core area affected by the earthquake also needs to ensure the best stability and aerodynamic performance, including 400000 tons of MDI (the actual production capacity is about 330000 tons) and 260000 tons of methyl ethyl ketone. While the device is damaged, water, electric light utilities, roads and ports are damaged to varying degrees, and production, transportation and export cannot be normally guaranteed in a short time

insiders pointed out that although the losses suffered by the plant production cannot be measured, the impact of the earthquake is expected to be at least one month long collective overhaul. In this case, the global polyurethane supply and demand may be stimulated, and China will bear the brunt

"the start-up of the demand side and the rigidity of the short-term supply side have formed the stress to promote the imbalance between supply and demand in the polyurethane industry chain. In this context, the short-term fuse factors will promote the early start-up of prices." According to Liang Bin, an analyst at CSC securities, the supply shock caused by the Japanese earthquake will promote the early and rapid release of supply and demand stress in the global polyurethane industry chain and the rapid rise of prices of related products

a-share market, Yantai Wanhua is the main MDI supplier, while Qixiang Tengda is expected to benefit from the recovery of methyl ethyl ketone price

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